Champions League: All set for Wembley, here’s what the stats predict for the final

by Patrick Karters June 1, 2024, 5:38 pm

The German defense against the Real Madrid attack, Kobel’s saves against Vinicius Jr.’s numbers, Kroos’ impressive stats. All this and more in the Wembley clash.

Eighteenth final for Real Madrid, third for Borussia Dortmund after the one won in 1997 against Juventus and the one lost against Bayern Munich in 2013: the Wembley clash will be the first in history between the two teams in the final.

But obviously not the first European face-to-face: the Germans and the Spaniards have met 15 times in the competition, the last time in 2017 in the group stage (two wins out of two for the Spaniards), while the last success of the Germans dates back to 2014, a useless 2-0 in the second leg of the quarter-finals, which ended in a 3-0 for the Merengues in the first leg.

Thanks to the data from Opta Data Insights, we have collected some statistics on Saturday’s match.

The real favorites

According to Opta Tournament Predictions, Real Madrid are the favorites, with a 63.5% chance of winning.

In this edition of the Champions League, Carlo Ancelotti’s men are still unbeaten: they have won eight matches and drawn four. In case of success, the Iberians would equal Barcelona’s record in 2005/2006.

Borussia, on the other hand, arrives at the final act with two defeats on the scoreboard: PSG in the group stage and Atlético de Madrid in the quarterfinals.

Kroos for history

Like Marco Reus, his compatriot Toni Kroos has recently announced that he will be hanging up his boots, in the case of the Madrid player, not after this match, but at the end of the European Championship.

This means that his ten-year relationship with Real Madrid will come to an end on Saturday evening.

Kroos will participate in his 465th match with the newly crowned Spanish champions and, in case of victory, will become the first player to triumph in his last Champions League match, like Xavi in 2015.

For Kroos, this is his seventh final, having missed out through injury in 2013.

The former Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen player has made 10,004 passes in 150 Champions League matches, more than any other player since 2003/04.

Hummels, the executioner

He will not play Euro 2024 due to a technical decision, a choice that the German central defender did not take very well. Mats Hummels will therefore end his season at Wembley.

After scoring against PSG, the defender is aiming for a personal record: the 35-year-old has not missed a single minute during this Champions League season, and if this continues in the final, he will be the first player to have never been replaced since Cristiano Ronaldo in the 2017/18 season. Among the defenders, there is also Sami Hyypiä of Liverpool in 2004/05.

In addition to his goals, Hummels has distinguished himself with his tackles: 48 in this edition of the tournament, the most for a single player since Lúcio of Inter in 2009/10 (53).

Hummels, like Reus, was present at Wembley in 2013 when Borussia Dortmund lost to Bayern Munich.

Tomorrow 😳#UCLfinal pic.twitter.com/pWLdT4cyor
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) May 31, 2024

Real Madrid breathless, Borussia lucky

We haven’t seen a dominant Real Madrid in this Champions League, at least in terms of score: Real Madrid have only been in the lead for 7.5% of the playing time in this edition, or 90 minutes out of 1,200.

Borussia Dortmund can thank their goalkeepers, as only 12 goals have been scored by their opponents throughout the campaign: an absolute record since 2003/2004. The Germans must also thank their goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who has stopped 84% of shots on target (42/50).

Beware of Vini

Will the Brazilians (Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo) or the English (Jude Bellingham and Jadon Sancho) do better?

The first on this list is expected: in the last three seasons, no one has scored more goals than Vinícius Jr.

**The Brazilian has scored 16 goals and provided 15 assists, and 17 of

Borussia Dortmund Real Madrid